iPhone Shipment Estimate Reduced 10% Because of Coronavirus Outbreak

Feb. 3, 2020

TF International Securities analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo, has lowered his iPhone shipment forecast for the first quarter of this year because of theCoronavirus outbreakin China. In a research note published this week, Kuo revised his global iPhone shipment estimate to between 36 and 40 million units – a 10 percent reduction from his original estimate.

It’s worth noting that Apple this week closed all its its corporate offices, stores and repair centers in China as part of its efforts to contain the deadly outbreak. While that will, no doubt, contribute to the overall decline in shipments, Kuo claims that Android manufacturers are also feeling the heat. To add to the possible decline in consumer confidence stemming from theCoronavirus scare, the lack of unique use cases for 5G is also stopping Android users from upgrading to new handsets, he claimed.

“We think that the primary reason for the lower-than- expected replacement demand is due to no innovative user experience being created by 5G. Even the penetration rate of 5G smartphones grows due to replacing 4G models, while the overall market still shrinks, and it hurts the growth of brands and the supply chain”, he said.

Overall, smartphone shipments in China is believed to have declined precipitously during the Chinese New Year holiday period, with Kuo claiming that the numbers have fallen by 50-60 percent year-on-year, largely because of the coronavirus crisis.

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